Unit 3 - Discussion Board

Scenario Planning

In scenario planning one would first create a list of driving forces that will affect the outcome of the planned innovation. Driving forces or one could refer to them as trends. These forces use the PEST model this model means driving forces will be that of Political forces, Economical forces, Sociological forces, and Technology trends. One would create this list of forces.

Then one would narrow this list by categorizing the list by the salutation the force will affect. Then decide what are the driving forces. Then develop a new list with only the driving forces. The goal will be to narrow the list down to two driving forces.

In scenario planning you then find the critical uncertainties from the list of driving forces. The critical uncertainties are forces that cannot be controlled but have a very high impact on the overall outcome. This would be a force comparable to weather. Weather cannot be controlled, but will have a high impact on outside activities.

Then create a model by using the critical uncertainties and figuring out the positive impact and the negative impact or the changing outcome or the outcome as desired. For example with weather if the then it outdoor and it is raining the event is moved or canceled where if the weather is sunny the weather has little or no impact on the event.

The next step is to create a model in the form of a + sign. Then write on one side the most impact this force will have and on the other side write the least impact this force will have. This will contrast to this or that statements. The information write on each side become 4 scenarios to research and think about.

Then determining what are the key issues faced in the 4 scenarios created form the model. How do we use this and work with this. Then identify the risks of each scenarios. One will also have to think of when do we need to respond to these scenarios. Then focus on innovation focus could the scenarios offer opportunities. How long would it take to innovate from these scenarios and is it worth while to peruse.

Traditional Forecasting

looking to improve a product for the future based on the current implementation. One would think in the future what would be the demand for this product. Will this product have a different demand, if so how can we improve the product to meet the demand (if possible). Then brain storm, create a list of factors and how long it will take to make the changes need.

Frum, R. (2013, August 6). Word association of newspapers scenario planning. Retrieved from the Personal Expert System Web site: http://personalexpertsystem.blogspot.com/2013/08/world-association-of-newspapers.html

Globis.jp. (2014, September 3). Woody Wade: "Scenario planning" - Thinking differently about future innovation. Retrieved from http://e.globis.jp/article/000363.html